Sam Amick is reporting that Beno Udrih has accepted that $32 million, five-year deal from the Kings. As I said in my long analysis of why exactly Beno shouldn't be getting the full mid-level for five years from Sacramento, I'm not mad at this. I'm not sure it's the perfect move, but it sure as Hades beats Chris Duhon.

Welcome back, Beno. But cut your hair and put on some pants, for God's sake.

UPDATE: Chad Ford and Beno used to kick it at this crazygood pastry shop in Ljubljana (or something), so Ford gets the quote:

"I am so happy and honored to be returning to the Kings," Udrih told ESPN.com. "They took a chance on me and believed in me. I can't wait to get back to my teammates and the city that has become home to me."

Translation:

"I need some frickin' In-n-Out and a Hefeweizen from Sudwerks!"

It's understood that with a core assumed to be focused on the continued development of Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes, the Sacramento Kings intend to build an elite offense. Of course, with Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia (and Ron Artest, for now) aboard, defense won't be relegated to nothingness. But offense will be the priority, I'd imagine.

Beno Udrih is not a defensive stalwart. He's a bit strong, but not strong enough or long enough to make up for his lateral unquickness. I won't bolt him to Bibby status or assure Chris Paul will drop 30/15 every time the Hornets visit, but I'm certainly not going to pretend Beno can become a stopper or anything resembling a great defender.

So, Beno's offense: is it good enough to help the Kings put together an elite assault? The early returns would seem good: Sacramento had the #13 offense in the league last season, despite missing a month of Martin and a month of Artest. The offense got better under Beno, though some of that could also be attributed to more touches for Martin, better efficiency from Artest, and the elimination of Eric Musselman's clusterjunk.

On the individual level, Beno has proven to be an exceptional deep shooter, a strong penetrator, and capable of bringing the ball up the floor without wasting 10 seconds. There are two things keeping him from being a great offensive PG, though ... and I'm not confident either can be fixed.

He doesn't finish well.
Our view of Beno's talent has been clouded seriously by Mike Bibby's long-observed weaknesses. Near the end of his Sactown reign, Bibby stopped driving to the rim. It wasn't because he became a better shooter or because teams clogged the lane against him -- he just couldn't finish any more. He still drew fouls, but it's understandable that once you stop making lay-ups regularly, you're going to stop taking it inside. Bibby lost a touch of his never-spectacular athleticism, and lost at least half-a-step as he aged. Those factors conspired to make him an inefficient finisher, which lead to less penetration, which lead to fewer nifty assists and more jumpers, which lead to less offensive chemistry and less individual consistency. And that's all folks -- Bibby's no longer an elite PG.

Beno wasn't a good finisher last season, and has been below-average on his career. Using NBA.com's excellent Hot Spots data, I broke the field goal percentages on layups or 'close' shots for a random collection of starting point guards. I didn't go after everyone, but tried to include some similarly styled (shoot-first) PGs.

Udrih       -- 50.2%
T. Parker -- 59.8%
A. Miller   -- 58.9%
Nash       -- 56.7%
Telfair      -- 45.1%
B. Davis  -- 54.9%
Alston      -- 46.5%
Calderon -- 66.3%
Ford         -- 51.3%
Billups     -- 56.6%
Arroyo      -- 53.2%
Nelson    -- 58.8%
Harris      -- 55.8%
Kidd         -- 44.4%
Rondo     -- 54.3%

It's hardly scientific, but ... most of the great offensive PGs on that have high inside FG%s, yeah? Alston's better than he looks -- he makes a ton of threes. Telfair's simply awful. Kidd's overrated, but passes better than everyone but Nash (at a cost -- both those guys make a ton of turnovers).

What this says to me, though: great offensive PGs can finish at the hoop. Beno's not so hot in this category. He's better than Bibby has been his past two seasons (48.8% in 2006-07, 46.8% in 2007-08), but closer to that pole than fellows like Billups, Nash and Calderon.

Thanks to Beno's exceptional three-point shooting and good mid-range game, this isn't a pox on his game. But at the very least, the iffy finishing hurts the other factor killing his chance at being a great offensive weapon ...

He does not regularly help his teammates get easy shots.
The assist is a tricky matron, and I'm not going to get into all of that noise here. A quick summary of my thinking on the subject: assists are overrated, but probably important to some degree, but painfully misunderstood. That Tony Parker is not considered one of the elite point guards in this league because of his low assist totals is a great sham. There is historically no connection between offensive efficiency and assist percentages, nor between shooting percentages and assist percentages. On the whole, according teams and seasons, assists add nothing to a team's offense.

But certain players most certainly depend on good passes to get good opportunities to score. I'd even say all players would be helped by a good pass. This roster has a few of those guys -- Martin's a stunning isolation threat, but give him some screens, some kick-outs, some lobs and he becomes one of the best offensive weapons in the league. Spencer Hawes needs help getting loose inside -- he's not strong enough to establish deep position against most post defenders, so his dunks are going to need to come off picks-and-rolls and transition opportunities. (Ditto Shelden Williams and, I suspect, Jason Thompson.) Francisco Garcia is much, much better as a spot-up shooter than an off-the-dribble threat. I imagine Quincy Douby would be similar if he ever got any minutes.

How much of that is Beno offering? I'm trying to remember a single Beno-to-Martin alley-oop; I can clearly recall two deliveries from Anthony Freaking Johnson in one half. That glorious "Shock and Hawes" highlight against the Lakers -- Beno drove and dished back to a bulldozin' Hawes for the transition jam. That was way too rare ... way too rare.

I hardly think it's a coincidence the Kings became the worst 'assists' team in the league when Beno took over. He doesn't have the tunnel vision of the true chuckin' PGs, but passing is clearly the last resort when he drives the lane. That's good sometimes, as the Sacramento frontcourt of 2007-08 either couldn't hang onto a ball (Mikki Moore) or finish with a jam (Brad Miller) -- but with Hawes and (hopefully) Thompson, and Garcia and Martin on the wings, the pass off the drive will be the preferred play ... especially with Udrih's stated problems finishing in the lane.

Is the low assist performance of '07-08 a product of Beno's intuition about his teammates? Highly unlikely, considering his record in San Antonio. This can improve marginally, but don't bet on Beno's rebirth as the next Calderon.

(Turnovers are also a problem, but it's a lesser concern as his numbers there aren't atrocious and it's something that usually gets better with age and experience.)

To sum up: I'm not mad at Beno at the full mid-level for five years. I just happen to think -- with the above arguments leading the way -- that he's not going to be good enough to get you where you need to be offensively in order to balance your obvious defensive warts. He's almost certainly the best option next season, and almost certainly for 2009-10 as well. Beyond that, you're risking being stuck with a good point guard when you need to a great one (on either end).

I mean no disrespect to the Tasmanian Slovenian (or was it Slovenian Tasmanian?), but Gil Watch pumps my blood a lot harder than Beno Watch. So while Mike Dunleavy buys Beno Udrih some crepes Suzette in NYC, we'll keep tabs on Gilbert Arenas until Ivan Carter tells us differently.

The Washington Times indicates the Arenas situation might take a few weeks to be resolved.

The source also said that Arenas -- who has a 9 a.m. flight today to China for part of a two-week promotional tour with Adidas -- likely will take less than the max to help give the Wizards more flexibility financially. Arenas likely won't agree to the new deal until returning from China and once the NBA releases the salary cap numbers for the coming year so he will have a better idea of what the Wizards have to work with and how he can help by "leaving money on the table," the source said.

This gives us all the time we need to produce a billboard offering to mow Gil's lawn if he signs with us! Yes!

Seriously though, the Kings are in severe longshot position, I'd gather. The longer it takes for Washington or Golden State to lock him in, the better the slim, slim odds for the Kings become.

Does Scott Howard-Cooper know something we don't?

From Sacramento and Miami and every surreal place in between comes the reality that the Kings and representatives of Jason Williams, if not Williams himself, will probably be talking within a few days to explore the possibility of his return to the Kings as a free agent.

The Kings are prohibited from contact with free agents and any public comments until the market opens tonight at 9 Pacific time. Aware that Williams is an exposed nerve of a topic around Sacramento, and that it could send the wrong message to Beno Udrih, the Kings are hesitant to discuss the scenario even off-the-record.

But it has a chance of happening. Not a great chance, for a few reasons that have nothing to do with the past, but an actual chance. It's real.

The problem I'd have with a J-Thrill reunion is that he's not going to get guys like Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia, Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson any easy shots. Most of his speed seems expired, opponents will slack off him and let him shoot threes, and his defense is nowhere near helpful, based on the last two years of work.

If Sacramento's really going the stopgap route -- Williams, Chris Duhon, Carlos Arroyo would qualify -- I'd hope the acquisition would be able to bring one of two things to the table: make the game easier for the other scorers through passing or shooting, or play hellcat defense to explore whether a Kevin Martin team can be above-average on defense. Duhon's a great defender, but actually takes thing off the table on offense and doesn't seem too devoted to his trade.

My dream scenario: Watch Philadelphia get caught up in the Josh Smith-Elton Brand-Andre Iguodala heat, and try to swoop on Louis Williams with the mid-level. He's 21, he's getting better every year, and he's way under the radar. Of course, he's pretty deep into combo guard territory, but we were clamoring for Jerryd Bayless, what, like four days ago?

Since we're all throwing around salary numbers in our discussions of Beno Udrih and the other point guard options, it helps to have the most accurate picture of the salary cap, luxury tax and mid-level numbers as possible. I asked around at the APBRmetrics board, and was pointed to this May piece on DraftExpress, which has some estimates of those figures:

The most interesting thing to come out of the seminar might have been the insight that was revealed about next year’s cap figures and the NBPA’s plans regarding the upcoming CBA. Next year’s salary cap is currently being estimated at 58.5 million dollars, up from 55.63 million dollars. The luxury tax threshold is projected to rise to 71 million dollars, up from 67.865 million this year, and the Mid-Level Exception is expected to rise to 5.55 million dollars, up from 5.36 million. These are not final or official numbers at this point, but rather the NBPA’s estimations, as they were told to us.

The important ones for Sacramento's purposes are the luxury tax and mid-level. We had been estimating a five-year mid-level would cost about $32 million. Here's what would actually be, based on these estimates from the Players Association:

2008-09: $5.55 million
2009-10: $5.99 million
2010-11: $6.44 million
2011-12: $6.88 million
2012-13: $7.33 million
TOTAL: $32.19 million

(Holy crap that was a good guess!)

Beno will turn 26 years old next week, so this deal would expire before he turns 31. Chauncey Billups is 31 years old. Derek Fisher is almost 34. Both are shooter-points, and both got free agent contracts last summer. Barring catastrophic injury or rampant suckitude, Beno should be worthy of minutes all the way through this contract.

But is he worthy of the salary? section214 has done the comparisons several times, and the mid-level salary seems well within Beno's wheelhouse. So the question becomes: is he good enough to be the starting PG in 2011, 2012, 2013 with the team where we'd like it to be? Is he a contender-level starting PG?

The jury's out. Some people think he's the next Gail Goodrich, after all. Some think he's a career back-up. Obviously, the truth is out there. The Kings could win or lose either way.

One more cap-related glance: how close are the Kings to the luxury tax, assuming both possible Ron Artest scenarios?

With Artest, without Beno: $64 million -- $7 million under the tax
Without Artest, without Beno: $56.6 million -- $14.4 million under the tax
With Artest, with Beno: $69.5 million -- $1.5 million under the tax
Without Artest, with Beno: $62 million -- $9 million under the tax

If Artest stays and Beno gets his full mid-level from the Kings, Sacramento will be flirting with the luxury tax. The best case salary-wise would probably see Artest opt out and Beno stay -- there'd be plenty of breathing room for potential expiring contract trades, and we'd have a point guard not named Francisco Garcia.

I know most hope Artest stays in so that the Kings can "get something" for him. While he's a hell of a talent and possibly a decent chip, I'd be fine if he opted out: it allows Petrie that much more flexibility this summer.

I'll have my personal thinking on Beno tomorrow morning. In the meantime, new featured poll.

(Two thousand thank-yous to the irrepressible section214 for holding down El Fort de StR during my [impeccable] holiday. He didn't kill any of my plants, and he even left one beer in the fridge! Three cheers for Rob: hip hip hurrah! hip hip hurrah! hip hip-- oh damn, there's a Game 7 tonight?!?!)

As section214 wrote yesterday, Amick's Q&A with Geoff Petrie is a must-read for any Kings fan. There's plenty of meal to gnaw through, and I'll try to slip myself back into the flow by attacking one of them: turnovers.

Not long ago, we were among the most careful ballhandlers. In 2007, under Eric Musselman's (cluster)flex offense, the Kings were #5 in the league in turnovers. (Which is to say: the fifth best team at not turning the ball over.) The offense, as I remember it, was far from pretty. Statistically, it was below league average. But the team didn't turn it over much.

This season, the offense was better. It finished #13 in the league, on par with San Antonio. But that was built on opportune foul-drawing and improved shooting numbers, as the turnover figures sunk like a stone to worst in the NBA. Yep, the Kings were more likely this season to turn the ball over in any given possession than the Heat, the Sonics, the Grizzlies, or the Knicks. Real bad.

What caused it?

Either the personnel or the offensive system Reggie Theus implanted. Much of the personnel stayed the same, so we can either blame that one or rule it out pretty simply. Let's begin.

Kevin Martin played increased minutes and saw increased possession usage in 2008, but saw his turnover rate (the percentage of his used possessions which ended in a turnover) climb only slightly (from 9.3% to 10.1%). It remained quite low for a high-usage shooting guard.

Ron Artest also saw his possession usage increase in 2008, but his turnover rate also increased only a small amount (from 10.7% to 11.9%).

Brad Miller's usage moved back up toward its natural level, but his turnover rate stayed level from his (bad) 2007. He did play 800 minutes more in 2008 than 2007, and his is one of the higher turnover rates on the team.

John Salmons increased his minutes and usage and saw his turnover rate get better in 2008. Of course, his turnover rate is still loads worse than those of either Martin or Artest, so the extra minutes hurt the team's mark when you consider he was often replacing one of those two fellows.

Francisco Garcia also saw more minutes and a much higher usage, and rewarded the team with better turnover marks. Don't blame El Flaco's mistake-a-game.

So of those five core players who played under both Musselman and Theus, none became significantly worse ballhandlers in 2008. A piece of the unfortunate turnover turnaround can be explained by increased minutes for Miller and Salmons (two surprisingly turnover-prone players), but the offensive system seemingly should not be fingered for blame.

Let's then look at the core rotation spots where the personnel changed.

Point guard. Mike Bibby in 2007: 13% turnover rate. Beno Udrih in 2008: 16.1% turnover rate. That's a huge difference, especially when you consider Bibby handled the ball much more than Udrih does (for all the talk about Udrih being a pure point).

Power forward. Shareef Abdur-Rahim wasn't asked to do much under Musselman; "don't turnover the ball" was a central priority. Reef was good at that -- in 2,000 minutes, his turnover rate was 13.1%. Mikki Moore, God bless him, had a turnover rate of 16.2% in 2,300 minutes in 2008.

(There were other significant personnel changes: Kenny Thomas and Corliss Williamson became Spencer Hawes and some extra Brad Miller, Ronnie Price became, um, Orien Greene and, um, Anthony Johnson, and QUINCY DOUBY! became "Quincy Whatshisname-by." But all the guys above are the real big tickets in terms of playing time and possessions used.)

So the reason for the dissolution of the Sacramento hallmark of ball protection: Beno Udrih and Mikki Moore. One's a stopgap forward whom you hope touches the ball only when he is a) rebounding it, b) dunking it, or c) firing it in Robert Horry's general direction. The other is the potential point guard of the future. In Amick's Q&A, Petrie says this:

When you look at style of play vs. personnel, what ultimately happens on the court is always some function of what you're doing and who's doing it. But the whole assist-to-turnover ratio issue is probably a little bit more weighted toward style of play issues than personnel, whereas I think you could probably fairly say that the rebounding is more weighted on the personnel side. So going forward, those are things that hopefully we can address to some extent by working through it during the offseason.

Might strategy alone fix the new turnover problem? That seems a bit hard to swallow, considering Beno has now recorded three bad turnover rates in his four NBA seasons. What style of play covers up Beno's weakness here? A slow-down San Antonio-style offense relying on guard penetration and post play?

It seems Hawes, Petrie's prototype and clearly a central slice of the future, is more suited for an up-tempo high post offense, relying on guard cutters and shooters galore. Martin, Hawes, and Garcia seem to fit Petrie's manual to a tee. Beno can shoot, but more often wants to drive. That results in ... suprise! turnovers.

If style's the problem, it's because Beno doesn't really fit the style. That makes it a personnel problem. And that makes it something to watch come July.

The damned Lakers have a way of clouding reality, don't they? As the Kings stuck with them through two quarters, I goaded myself into believing the Kings could win. The team's best three players were out. Spencer Hawes was frustrated and awful. Mikki Moore wasn't doing much. Francisco Garcia was a bit off. The team looked tired (understandable, given the fight against San Antonio the night prior). The Lakers had a full assault, and they were at home, and they were on rest.

Against most teams, I would have conceded as soon as the margin hit 10. Good fight, fine season, good night. I hung in until the margin was about 18, though. At that point, it became "watch Quincy run."

Seriously, how perfectly morbid is it that the big take-away from the season's 82nd game was a monster night from Quincy Douby, in which he carved up the opposing defense so effortlessly you almost imagined it was summer league? QD shows us something between little and nothing all year ... and then on April 15, he drops 32. I'd be mad were it not for the closing play -- penetration leading to an and-1 ... with 3.3 seconds on the game clock, down 26. Showing disrespect to the Lakers will always get you points in my book.

So there we are, that's it. "Next Game: No game scheduled," says Yahoo!. I've been ready for the end since March, but it still stings a little. As many noted in response to the most recent poll, a 38-44 season is not typically a success. More than half the mornings-after this season have resulted in something between mild annoyance and downright depression. It's all part of the fan's manifesto, and we all deal with it in our own ways. But it's not the downers which are important -- it's the moments of glee and heartfelt excitement and fluttering pride in something we truly have more than a customer-business relationship in.

The offseason means no more Kevin Martin box scores. No more Spencer Hawes dunks. No more Francisco Garcia mean faces. No more Mikki Moore screeches. No more Ron Artest flyin' fist pumps of doom. No more Beno Udrih lefty kisses off the glass. No more Brad Miller face-flattening screens in the open court. No more cheesy shots bespectacled randoms during Newman Lasik promos. No more Fat Lever or Henry Turner (or, yes, Katye Christensen). No more Jerryisms. No more... no more... no more Peaches. <sniffle>

I miss Kings basketball already. But hey! Only roughly 172 days until the first preseason game!

(As it were, if you just joined StR this season, fear not: We'll be around all summer. In fact, June has historically been our most active month. In the next few weeks, we'll eulogize this season and started looking at what the team can/will do this summer. We'll get our draft prognostication on. We'll discuss the playoffs. We'll post more pictures of Peaches turning up in foreign countries. We'll prepare for free agency, summer league, the Olympics, preseason, and of course the 2008-09 season. Hope you join us, and we thank you for being a part of the 2007-08 season with us.)