We've heard quiet stars claim they are ready to be leaders before. Peja said he'd lead the team once Vlade and Webber left. Then Mike Bibby said it. Brad Miller said it. None came close to becoming an actual on-court (or lockerroom) leader -- that was left to Ron Artest and Corliss Williamson.

But when Kevin Martin says he wants to take control, as he does in this Ailene Voisin column, I tend to believe him.

"I'm coming to training camp this year ready to do whatever it takes, being vocal in the locker room, asking to defend the toughest player. I know I'm ready to be the leader, to be that guy."

For those who haven't watched Martin's ascension these four years, it's easy to dismiss that as offseason yammering. But tell me -- when has Martin not followed through?

Read the whole column. Apparently, our little Zapper is wowing the coaches at Olympic practice in Las Vegas.

As quoted by ZenBaller in the FanPosts, the Washington Post's Ivan Carter:

Also, I heard from a very reliable source that the Sacramento Kings contacted Arenas and said they are willing to do "whatever it takes" to land his services even if they have to "trade their entire team." Guess the Maloof brothers want to matter again.

On a standard six-year maximum contract acquired via sign-and-trade, Gil's 2008-09 salary would be $17.1 million. Brad Miller and John Salmons gets it done from a contractual standpoint. It's unclear whether Washington would want to take those contracts back -- Salmons is fairly priced, Miller can play in Eddie Jordan's Princeton offense and expires in 2010. The only real 2009 expirings Sacramento could offer would be Ron Artest and Mikki Moore (sort-of); you'd assume playing with Artest and Kevin Martin would be the reason Gil would want to come to Sacramento (besides the $124 million, of course). A Shelden Williams, Artest, Moore combination would work financially if Ron's not a requirement, though.

A hypothetical Gil max contract would look like:

2008-09: $17.1 million
2009-10: $18.5 million
2010-11: $19.9 million
2011-12: $21.3 million
2012-13: $22.7 million
2013-14: $24.1 million

That is a lot of money. But Gil is a lot of player. If Arenas regained his pre-2007 production, Gil&Martin would instantly be one of the best backcourts in the Western Conference (perhaps behind only Parker/Manu and Telfair/McCants). The injury creates quite a big if, though. And I can guarantee you right now whichever team signs Gil to a max contract will get murdered in the press and the blogs. Can we handle the jokes?

Right now, it'd appear the Kings are a deep, deep third among reasonable options. Golden State can lock in Arenas without Wizards cooperation. It appears the Wizards would like Arenas for themselves. Dominoes would have to fall for it to happen here. I'm fully on board and in full-on hope mode. How 'bout you?

(Two thousand thank-yous to the irrepressible section214 for holding down El Fort de StR during my [impeccable] holiday. He didn't kill any of my plants, and he even left one beer in the fridge! Three cheers for Rob: hip hip hurrah! hip hip hurrah! hip hip-- oh damn, there's a Game 7 tonight?!?!)

As section214 wrote yesterday, Amick's Q&A with Geoff Petrie is a must-read for any Kings fan. There's plenty of meal to gnaw through, and I'll try to slip myself back into the flow by attacking one of them: turnovers.

Not long ago, we were among the most careful ballhandlers. In 2007, under Eric Musselman's (cluster)flex offense, the Kings were #5 in the league in turnovers. (Which is to say: the fifth best team at not turning the ball over.) The offense, as I remember it, was far from pretty. Statistically, it was below league average. But the team didn't turn it over much.

This season, the offense was better. It finished #13 in the league, on par with San Antonio. But that was built on opportune foul-drawing and improved shooting numbers, as the turnover figures sunk like a stone to worst in the NBA. Yep, the Kings were more likely this season to turn the ball over in any given possession than the Heat, the Sonics, the Grizzlies, or the Knicks. Real bad.

What caused it?

Either the personnel or the offensive system Reggie Theus implanted. Much of the personnel stayed the same, so we can either blame that one or rule it out pretty simply. Let's begin.

Kevin Martin played increased minutes and saw increased possession usage in 2008, but saw his turnover rate (the percentage of his used possessions which ended in a turnover) climb only slightly (from 9.3% to 10.1%). It remained quite low for a high-usage shooting guard.

Ron Artest also saw his possession usage increase in 2008, but his turnover rate also increased only a small amount (from 10.7% to 11.9%).

Brad Miller's usage moved back up toward its natural level, but his turnover rate stayed level from his (bad) 2007. He did play 800 minutes more in 2008 than 2007, and his is one of the higher turnover rates on the team.

John Salmons increased his minutes and usage and saw his turnover rate get better in 2008. Of course, his turnover rate is still loads worse than those of either Martin or Artest, so the extra minutes hurt the team's mark when you consider he was often replacing one of those two fellows.

Francisco Garcia also saw more minutes and a much higher usage, and rewarded the team with better turnover marks. Don't blame El Flaco's mistake-a-game.

So of those five core players who played under both Musselman and Theus, none became significantly worse ballhandlers in 2008. A piece of the unfortunate turnover turnaround can be explained by increased minutes for Miller and Salmons (two surprisingly turnover-prone players), but the offensive system seemingly should not be fingered for blame.

Let's then look at the core rotation spots where the personnel changed.

Point guard. Mike Bibby in 2007: 13% turnover rate. Beno Udrih in 2008: 16.1% turnover rate. That's a huge difference, especially when you consider Bibby handled the ball much more than Udrih does (for all the talk about Udrih being a pure point).

Power forward. Shareef Abdur-Rahim wasn't asked to do much under Musselman; "don't turnover the ball" was a central priority. Reef was good at that -- in 2,000 minutes, his turnover rate was 13.1%. Mikki Moore, God bless him, had a turnover rate of 16.2% in 2,300 minutes in 2008.

(There were other significant personnel changes: Kenny Thomas and Corliss Williamson became Spencer Hawes and some extra Brad Miller, Ronnie Price became, um, Orien Greene and, um, Anthony Johnson, and QUINCY DOUBY! became "Quincy Whatshisname-by." But all the guys above are the real big tickets in terms of playing time and possessions used.)

So the reason for the dissolution of the Sacramento hallmark of ball protection: Beno Udrih and Mikki Moore. One's a stopgap forward whom you hope touches the ball only when he is a) rebounding it, b) dunking it, or c) firing it in Robert Horry's general direction. The other is the potential point guard of the future. In Amick's Q&A, Petrie says this:

When you look at style of play vs. personnel, what ultimately happens on the court is always some function of what you're doing and who's doing it. But the whole assist-to-turnover ratio issue is probably a little bit more weighted toward style of play issues than personnel, whereas I think you could probably fairly say that the rebounding is more weighted on the personnel side. So going forward, those are things that hopefully we can address to some extent by working through it during the offseason.

Might strategy alone fix the new turnover problem? That seems a bit hard to swallow, considering Beno has now recorded three bad turnover rates in his four NBA seasons. What style of play covers up Beno's weakness here? A slow-down San Antonio-style offense relying on guard penetration and post play?

It seems Hawes, Petrie's prototype and clearly a central slice of the future, is more suited for an up-tempo high post offense, relying on guard cutters and shooters galore. Martin, Hawes, and Garcia seem to fit Petrie's manual to a tee. Beno can shoot, but more often wants to drive. That results in ... suprise! turnovers.

If style's the problem, it's because Beno doesn't really fit the style. That makes it a personnel problem. And that makes it something to watch come July.

Sam Amick posted the audio from Jim Crandell's show, which is a tour de force of WTF. Listen if you haven't.

Marty McNeal had the definitive column on the matter, which is all sorts of awesome considering McNeal's traditional point-of-view on such matters.

I emailed Grant Napear Saturday morning. My questions and his response follows:

-----

Ziller: Yesterday on your show, you accused Amick of taking comments out of context in order to write his story on Theus's thoughts on Artest. ...

1. Have you listened to the full comments?
2. Did you attend the media session?
3. Do you stand by your statement that the comments were taken out of context?
4. Did you meet with Theus before going on the air Friday to discuss how to attack the story, though you said during the show you had not?

Napear: I never mentioned Sam's name.  I never said he took the comments out of context.  Reggie made that statement. Once again you have your facts wrong!!! Why don't you call and ask Reggie?  He's the one that was quoted...not me..All I did was ask the questions.  I knew what he meant all along, but to accuse me of ripping Sam is absurd

-----

You can listen to Napear's interview with Theus here. Halfway through, Grant talks about Sam's article(s). You be the judge. (It's also worth mentioning that Napear -- who assails Amick for not understanding they phrase "throw the ball to" -- gets it completely wrong, per Theus's Saturday comments.)

Ugh.

Most high-scoring guards in the NBA fall into two categories: slasher or shooter. Slashers, like Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, draws tons of fouls. Shooters, like Ray Allen and Michael Redd, bomb away from long-range. Very few scorers combine the aspects of slasherdom and shooterdom well -- LeBron does shoot a bunch, but not efficiently from distance (32% career). The same goes for Kobe (34%) and Wade (26%). Redd (6.8/game) and Allen (3.2/game) draw few fouls, comparatively.

(I think you know where I'm headed with this.)

This season, Kevin Martin got 9.5 FTAs per game (#5 in the league). He also took 4.4 3PAs per game, and scored on 40.2% of those. That's good diversity. (<-- Understatement.)

How many players have ever averaged at least 9 FTAs per game and shot at least 40% from three (taking at least 1 three per game)? One. Kevin Martin, this season.

How many players have ever averaged at least 8 FTAs per game and shot at least 40% from three (taking at least 1 three per game)? Two. Kevin Martin and Michael Jordan.

How many players have ever averaged at least 7 FTAs per game and shot at least 40% from three (taking at least 1 three per game)? Six. Kevin Martin, Michael Jordan, Reggie Miller, Kevin Johnson, Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki.

[Martin's 2008-09 is real similar to Pierce's underrated 2001-02 season, when Pierce finished third-team All NBA and took Boston to the conference finals. Pierce shot more often and rebounded a bit better per-minute, but Martin shot much more efficiently and didn't have as many turnovers. (Pierce went 40 mpg; Martin had 36.) Paul Pierce, of course, is considered one of the most versatile offensive weapons in the world. He'll get a few low-ballot MVP votes, just as he has over his career. (Vince Carter's got a similar mix of numbers with point to a versatile offense, too.)]

But get this again: No one in the modern history of basketball who shoots so well from three has been driven to get to the line this much. Jordan, in 1995-96, shot 40% from three and averaged 8 FTAs per game. Kevin Martin shot 40% from three this year and averaged 9.5 FTAs! (In less playing time, even.)

Martin's offense isn't just at the top of this roster -- the combination of effective slashing and effective shooting is unprecedented in modern basketball history. And he still can't get the ball in crunch time? If Reggie Theus wasn't just blowin' smoke to keep Ron-Ron happy, he needs his retinas checked.

In his post-season press conference, Reggie Theus repeatedly called Ron Artest his best player, and said he's the only guy you can "throw it to" when the game's on the line.

"Down the stretch of games, what people don't really understand is that teams are throwing the ball to (Houston's) Tracy McGrady and letting him decide and figure out what's going on. They're throwing the ball to (the Los Angeles Lakers') Kobe (Bryant). They're throwing the ball to (Dallas') Dirk Nowitzki. They're throwing the ball to their best player and letting that guy get the double team and (play) out of it.

 

"Outside of Ron Artest, we don't have anyone you can throw the ball to ... . Without that guy, we're going to have to start figuring out where we're going to throw the ball."

According to 82games.com's "super clutch" numbers, which are stats earned in the 4th quarter or overtime, less than 2 minutes left, neither team leading by more than 3, Kevin Martin scored 1.29 points per possession, including FTs and TOs. In these minutes, Artest scored 0.98 points per possession (though he added a total of 4 assists in these 34 minutes of super clutch time, as well).

If you give Martin 5 possessions in "super clutch time" in a game, the stats say he will score 6.45 points. Artest will score 4.9 points, with a fraction of an assist (which by most measures/logic would be worth a fraction of a point). A point or point-and-a-half is all the difference in the world in a close game. (Artest's stunning inability to draw a foul in the clutch -- as opposed to Martin's striking knack for drawing fouls in the same circumstances -- has a ton to do with this. Ron can draw fouls, just not in crunch time.)

Because defense is hard to measure, we could "discuss" the superior player between Martin and Artest for days and days. No one would ever win the argument. But the stats show pretty clearly that Martin is the best scorer at any time, including down the stretch, and is less likely to turn the ball over. Artest has a knack for those timely threes, or sometimes a monster late dunk (hi Joakim!). But he also has a knack for forcing junk, and getting stripped. Martin has 1 turnover in all his 33 super-clutch minutes, to go with his 30 points.

You need a bucket? You give Kevin Martin the damn ball.

The damned Lakers have a way of clouding reality, don't they? As the Kings stuck with them through two quarters, I goaded myself into believing the Kings could win. The team's best three players were out. Spencer Hawes was frustrated and awful. Mikki Moore wasn't doing much. Francisco Garcia was a bit off. The team looked tired (understandable, given the fight against San Antonio the night prior). The Lakers had a full assault, and they were at home, and they were on rest.

Against most teams, I would have conceded as soon as the margin hit 10. Good fight, fine season, good night. I hung in until the margin was about 18, though. At that point, it became "watch Quincy run."

Seriously, how perfectly morbid is it that the big take-away from the season's 82nd game was a monster night from Quincy Douby, in which he carved up the opposing defense so effortlessly you almost imagined it was summer league? QD shows us something between little and nothing all year ... and then on April 15, he drops 32. I'd be mad were it not for the closing play -- penetration leading to an and-1 ... with 3.3 seconds on the game clock, down 26. Showing disrespect to the Lakers will always get you points in my book.

So there we are, that's it. "Next Game: No game scheduled," says Yahoo!. I've been ready for the end since March, but it still stings a little. As many noted in response to the most recent poll, a 38-44 season is not typically a success. More than half the mornings-after this season have resulted in something between mild annoyance and downright depression. It's all part of the fan's manifesto, and we all deal with it in our own ways. But it's not the downers which are important -- it's the moments of glee and heartfelt excitement and fluttering pride in something we truly have more than a customer-business relationship in.

The offseason means no more Kevin Martin box scores. No more Spencer Hawes dunks. No more Francisco Garcia mean faces. No more Mikki Moore screeches. No more Ron Artest flyin' fist pumps of doom. No more Beno Udrih lefty kisses off the glass. No more Brad Miller face-flattening screens in the open court. No more cheesy shots bespectacled randoms during Newman Lasik promos. No more Fat Lever or Henry Turner (or, yes, Katye Christensen). No more Jerryisms. No more... no more... no more Peaches. <sniffle>

I miss Kings basketball already. But hey! Only roughly 172 days until the first preseason game!

(As it were, if you just joined StR this season, fear not: We'll be around all summer. In fact, June has historically been our most active month. In the next few weeks, we'll eulogize this season and started looking at what the team can/will do this summer. We'll get our draft prognostication on. We'll discuss the playoffs. We'll post more pictures of Peaches turning up in foreign countries. We'll prepare for free agency, summer league, the Olympics, preseason, and of course the 2008-09 season. Hope you join us, and we thank you for being a part of the 2007-08 season with us.)